Election Prediction Markets
Trade on election outcomes worldwide. Prediction markets have proven more accurate than polls for forecasting elections, from US presidential races to global politics.
Election Prediction Markets
Election prediction markets let you trade on political outcomes: presidential races, congressional elections, referendums, and policy decisions. Research consistently shows these markets outperform polls and pundits.
Why Election Markets Are More Accurate Than Polls
In the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket’s prediction market was more accurate than every major poll and forecasting model. Why?
- Skin in the game — traders stake real money, forcing honest probability assessment.
- Continuous updates — prices adjust in real-time as new information emerges, unlike polls that are snapshots.
- Diverse information — traders incorporate polling data, insider knowledge, economic indicators, and everything else into a single price.
- Self-correcting — if the price is wrong, traders profit by correcting it.
Types of Election Markets
Presidential Elections
Multi-outcome markets with shares for each candidate. The most liquid and actively traded political markets.
Congressional Races
Binary markets on individual senate and house races, plus multi-outcome markets on overall control.
Policy Decisions
- “Will Congress pass [specific bill]?”
- “Will [country] hold early elections?”
International Elections
Markets on elections worldwide — UK general elections, EU parliament, emerging market races.
Election Markets on Purrdict
Purrdict will offer election prediction markets for major global races, powered by HIP-4 on Hyperliquid. On-chain settlement, sub-second fills, and real-time probability updates.