What Is a Multi-Outcome Market? Prediction Markets with Multiple Options
A multi-outcome market lets traders bet on which of several possible results will happen. Each outcome trades independently, and all prices should roughly sum to $1.
Definition
A multi-outcome market (also called a categorical market) is a prediction market with three or more possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own tradeable share, and the prices of all shares should approximately sum to $1.00.
Example
Consider the market: “Who will win the 2028 presidential election?”
| Outcome | Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate A | $0.35 | 35% |
| Candidate B | $0.28 | 28% |
| Candidate C | $0.22 | 22% |
| Other | $0.15 | 15% |
Each share pays $1 if that candidate wins, $0 otherwise. You can buy any outcome, sell any outcome, or hold multiple positions.
Why Multi-Outcome Markets Are Powerful
Multi-outcome markets capture nuances that binary yes/no markets cannot. Instead of asking “Will Candidate A win?” (binary), you can see relative probabilities across all candidates simultaneously.
They also create arbitrage opportunities. If the prices of all outcomes sum to more or less than $1.00, traders can profit by buying or selling the entire set — keeping prices honest.
Multi-Outcome Markets on Purrdict
Purrdict supports multi-outcome prediction markets on Hyperliquid via HIP-4. Each outcome is a separate tradeable token with its own order book, settled on-chain with sub-second finality.