Let’s place your first trade

A prediction market trade is a purchase of outcome shares — tokens priced between $0 and $1 that pay out $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it doesn’t. If you’ve never traded a prediction market before, this guide will walk you through it from scratch. We’ll use Purrdict on Hyperliquid’s testnet, so you can follow along with fake money. No risk, real experience.

By the end, you’ll understand what shares are, how prices work, and what happens when a market resolves.

Before you start

You need two things:

A crypto wallet (MetaMask or Rabby) — setup guide here
Testnet USDC — connect to Purrdict on testnet, and you’ll get test funds automatically

No real money involved. Everything on testnet is free.

Step 1: Browse the markets

When you open Purrdict, you’ll see a list of active markets. Each one is a question about something that will happen (or won’t). Some examples from the current testnet:

“Will BTC close above $95,000 today?” — a binary yes/no market
“What will Hypurr eat?” — a multi-outcome market with options like Akami, Otoro, and Canned Tuna
“HL 100 meter dash” — a fun community market

Pick one that interests you. For this walkthrough, let’s go with the BTC market since it’s the most straightforward.

Step 2: Understand what you’re looking at

Click into the BTC market. You’ll see something like this:

YES price: $0.68 — this is what one YES share costs right now
NO price: $0.32 — this is what one NO share costs right now

These prices add up to $1.00. They always do. The YES price is the market’s estimate of the probability. $0.68 = the crowd thinks there’s a 68% chance BTC closes above $95k.

You’ll also see an order book — bids (buy orders) on one side, asks (sell orders) on the other. This is the same order book structure used for stocks and crypto on any exchange.

Step 3: Decide your position

You have two choices:

Buy YES if you think BTC will close above $95k. You pay $0.68 per share and receive $1.00 per share if you’re right. Profit: $0.32 per share (a 47% return). If you’re wrong, you lose your $0.68.

Buy NO if you think BTC will stay below $95k. You pay $0.32 per share and receive $1.00 per share if you’re right. Profit: $0.68 per share (a 212% return). If you’re wrong, you lose your $0.32.

Notice the asymmetry: cheaper shares have higher potential returns but represent less likely outcomes. That’s how probability pricing works.

For this example, let’s say you think BTC is looking strong today. You want to buy YES.

Step 4: Place the order

Select “YES” on the market page
Enter the number of shares you want — let’s say 50
The interface will show you the total cost: 50 shares x $0.68 = $34.00
Click “Buy”

If this is your first trade, you’ll see an agent key approval popup from your wallet. Sign it once. After that, all future trades are one-click.

Your order gets submitted to Hyperliquid’s matching engine. If there’s liquidity at $0.68 (and there usually is), it fills instantly — under a second. You now own 50 YES shares on “BTC > $95k.”

Step 5: Watch your position

After buying, your position shows up in your portfolio. You can track:

Current value — the market price of your shares, which changes as the YES/NO prices move
Unrealized P&L — how much you’d make or lose if you sold right now
Time to resolution — how long until the market settles

If BTC rallies and the YES price moves from $0.68 to $0.82, your 50 shares are now worth $41 instead of the $34 you paid. You could sell now for a $7 profit, or hold until resolution.

If BTC drops and YES falls to $0.55, your shares are worth $27.50. You could cut your loss, or hold and hope for a recovery before the market closes.

Step 6: Resolution (the fun part)

When the market’s time expires, it resolves. For “BTC > $95k today,” this happens at midnight UTC. Hyperliquid’s oracle checks the BTC price, and:

If BTC is above $95k: every YES share pays $1.00. Your 50 shares return $50. You paid $34, so your profit is $16.
If BTC is below $95k: every YES share pays $0.00. You lose your $34.

There’s no claim process. There’s no waiting. The money hits your balance in the same block that the market resolves. This is one of the big advantages of HIP-4 — settlement is instant.

Quick tips for your first trades

Start with binary markets. Yes/no markets are the simplest to understand. Multi-outcome markets (like “What will Hypurr eat?”) add complexity — save those for after you’re comfortable with the basics.

Don’t go all-in. Even on testnet, practice good habits. Spread your test balance across a few positions instead of putting everything on one trade.

You can sell before resolution. You’re not locked in. If you buy YES at $0.68 and it rises to $0.85, you can sell and take profit. You don’t have to wait for the event to happen.

Check the time. A YES share at $0.68 with 12 hours left is very different from $0.68 with 5 minutes left. More time means more uncertainty.

Pay attention to the order book depth. If you’re buying a large number of shares, check how much liquidity is available at the current price. On thin markets, large orders can move the price against you.

Multi-outcome markets (when you’re ready)

Once you’re comfortable with binary markets, try a multi-outcome market like “What will Hypurr eat?” The concept is the same — each outcome has a price representing its probability — but now there are multiple possible winners.

You can buy shares of any outcome you think is underpriced, or sell/short one you think is overpriced. All outcome prices roughly sum to $1.00. For more on strategies, check out our trading strategies guide.

What’s next?

You’ve placed your first trade. You understand how shares work, how prices reflect probabilities, and how resolution pays out. That’s genuinely most of what you need.

From here, you can:

Keep practicing on testnet until you’re confident
Deposit real funds when you’re ready for mainnet
Read about why prediction markets are better than polls for the bigger picture

Purrdict is live on Hyperliquid’s testnet. Connect your wallet and place your first trade today — free testnet funds, real mechanics.

Your First Prediction Market Trade on Purrdict